Rugby World Cup France 2023 part II

I have also stated below what I think the outcome of the matches already scheduled will be. New Zealand will win every match they play. The All Blacks also have to defeat the Springboks, they just have to. New Zealand have to acquire more titles and records because they can and they deserve it, that Cup has their name on it. The All Blacks and some of their players are record setters and they need to prove it to everyone, including themselves. Even if they are not the best team in the World on paper, it is nice to have it set in stone and the Rugby World Cup is the best way to do that, if not the only one. 

The Rugby World Cup 2023 for the All Blacks will be an experience to say the least. New Zealand is definitely not France in terms of architecture, stadiums and culture, to name a few. And France has history, dead and living. La Tour Eiffel, La Tour Montparnasse, l'Arc de Triomphe, Sacré Coeur, Montmartre, Bordeaux's Cathedral, Le Mont St Michel, Mont Blanc, Le Château de Chenonceau. As a side note, Repose en Paix le vieux Notre-Dame. Of course, some of the All Blacks may have had experience before, but no one can deny this time around will still be interesting.

Noteworthy is that France is already fairly well-established as a country to host the World Cup. It doesn't need another co-host, and it has experience with such events. France is part of Europe, so continent-level organization, whilst New Zealand has and most likely will always be at an island-level. France throw huge musical concerts, sporting matches, fashion shows, movie events (Cannes), Paris is used as a film location and have some of the best artists and sportsmen living and by extension can handle crowds - back in the day, the heavyweights Zidane, Thierry Henry, Dusautoir, the now split up Daft Punk, David Guetta. France comes with heavy baggage so it has knowledge and management skills to apply to this massive and extremely special RWC. This seems to have been acknowledged and faith has been given to France as all the matches are in said country. 

Another factor is some of the All Blacks maybe be playing against their own teammates because some have/are/will be playing in France. The latter's quite significant for them, Conrad Smith and Nonu spent time there, likewise for others with Japan. I'm not sure if any of the current New Zealand squad have spent time in France. So this may be a moot point, but if not, another layer to add to the mix. 

Also, do not forget the Haka or the Kapa o Pango. The All Blacks have had some of the best Haka or Kapa o Pango and les Bleus, some of the best responses. I will say I do not approve of the fines handed out to teams for crossing the halfway line to respond to the Haka or the Kapa o Pango. France in 2011, England in 2019: it's ridiculous, not only do the fans love it, so do the opponents and the All Blacks themselves. The opponents should respond, that is one of the reasons for it, the All Blacks are challenging their opponents and waiting to be challenged. That is the essence of the ritual.

To add insult to injury, how awful does France feel at even the thought of not being Champion on home turf. And how exhilarating the All Blacks feel imagining they've beaten their long-standing rivals at Eden Park and le Stade de France. Of course, pity at their opponent's loss, the All Blacks are great sportsmen, but it would be another milestone they would have earned. Les Bleus and the All Blacks may just have one of the most beautiful relationships in Rugby History - massive respect and massive rivalry.

No doubt I will refer back to this when the Rugby World Cup is actually taking place. 

Friday 8 September, Stade de France, Saint-Denis, Pool A: France v New Zealand - NZ

Saturday 9 September, Stade Vélodrome, Marseille, Pool D: England v Argentina - Argentina

Sunday 10 September, Stade Vélodrome, Marseille, Pool B: South Africa v Scotland - South Africa

Sunday 10 September, Stade de Bordeaux, Bordeaux, Pool C: Wales v Fiji - Fiji

Friday 15 September, Stadium de Toulose, Toulouse, Pool A: New Zealand v Africa 1 - New Zealand

Sunday 17 September, Stade Geoffroy Guichard, Saint-Étienne, Pool C: Australia v Fiji - Australia

Sunday 17 September, Stade de Nice, Nice, Pool D: England v Japan - 50/50

Saturday 23 September, Stade de France, Saint-Denis, Pool B: South Africa v Ireland - South Africa

Sunday 24 September Parc OL, Lyon, Pool C: Wales v Australia - Australia

Friday 29 September, Parc OL, Lyon, Pool A: New Zealand v Italy - New Zealand

Thursday 5 October, Parc OL, Lyon, Pool A: New Zealand v Americas 1 - New Zealand

Friday 6 October, Parc OL, Lyon, Pool A: France v Italy - France

Saturday 7 October, Stade de France, Saint-Denis, Pool B: Ireland v Scotland - Ireland

Sunday 8 October, Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes, Pool D: Japan v Argentina - Argentina

Sunday 15 October, Stade de France, Saint-Denis, Quarter-Final 4: Winner Pool A v Runner-Up Pool B - Winner Pool A = New Zealand

Saturday 21 October, Stade de France, Saint-Denis, Semi-Final 2: Winner Quarter-Final 3 v Winner Quarter-Final 4 - Winner Quarter-Final 4 = New Zealand

Saturday 28 October, Stade de France, Saint-Denis, Final: Winner Semi-Final 1 v Winner Semi-Final 2 - Winner Semi-Final 2 = New Zealand

- A.M.

Source:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/rugby-world-cup-2023-all-blacks-to-square-off-with-france-in-blockbuster-opening-match/BM6TLV7EFHTHZGB3R7DEA2VQ7Q/

Rugby World Cup France 2023 part I

The gauntlet has been thrown down! 

The first match is France vs New Zealand at no other than the Stade de France. On Friday the 8th of September 2023. Not just historical, with a shit tonne of rivalry, but it will be an epic, epic start to the RWC. With a capacity of 80 000 spectators, the Stade de France is steeped in musical history, sporting history, and tragedy. I have never been inside it, but I imagine it is like the old Wembley. Just watch  Nicola Sirkis's reaction to the crowd. Note Indochine are a seasoned band: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKn7PH-bFQ4

The All Blacks are going to win the whole tournament. They are the best team in the World. I was lucky enough to be in New Zealand when they won in 2011 and 2015. I was so sure they were going to win in 2019, but that doesn't stop them being the best team in the World. There is a saying that when you go up, you must come down. I respond: "You go up and you stay up. You don't go down." In this case at least. Tokyo was a fluke and I'm not just saying that because I back the All Blacks whole-heartedly. I never used to be interested in rugby, but when you live in New Zealand, you can't really not know about them, even if it's only Richie McCaw and Dan Carter you've heard of.

Tokyo was a fluke because of the storm Hagibis, and the unexpected waking up of England who suddenly realized they might have a better chance than they anticipated. Then England lost the next match, which quite frankly was a waste of everyone's time and effort. The All Blacks, on the other hand, always perform well, they are a solid team, and if you do need more evidence of this, look at them post Richie McCaw and Dan Carter. After they retired, I was most interested in seeing if the All Blacks were Richie McCaw and Dan Carter. They are not. the All Blacks are a team, they did not fall apart when Richie McCaw and Dan Carter were no longer part of them. Also note Richie McCaw was injured during a good part of the RWC 2011 and Dan Carter was too, for some time.

The final is also at the Stade de France on Saturday the 28th October 2023. The All Blacks will be there. The below placing is what I believe will be reality.

Champions: The All Blacks, New Zealand                           

Runner-up: Les Bleus, la France             

3rd Place: The Springboks, South Africa           

4th Place: The Wallabies, Australia                                     

5th Place: England                                     

What is my reasoning?

The All Blacks are the best team in the World. Rugby is in their blood, it's in their genetics. The current squad being a bit older then the other National Teams is irrelevant and if some of the ones in the current squad are in the 2023 one, they've been through at least one World Cup. The All Blacks have made history at least a few times throughout the whole World Cup timeline. And some of their players have too, Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Ma'a Nonu, the Barrett Brothers, as examples.

France are unpredictable, but their current squad are younger than the other Teams they'll go up against, and will still be fairly young if they play in two years' time. They also have heart and are on their home turf, which ups the stakes emotionally. They are thirsty for that Cup. 

"France 2023 [is] set to celebrate 200 years of rugby."

"France have yet to lift the Webb Ellis Cup despite playing in every tournament and reaching three finals. Other than their failure to win a Rugby World Cup, they have the best record of any European team – registering as many wins as 2003 champions England but with more points scored.

Having come so close to glory in 1987, 1999 and 2011, les Bleus will be looking to put the record straight and go all the way when they host the tournament for a second time in 2023."

“Every 12 years we are in the final of the World Cup. I did the calculations and it means that in 2023, that will be 12 years after our last final so, believe me, it’s 2023 and we need to bring the Cup home,” Macron said. 

“We’ll all be right behind you. We are celebrating an important anniversary in rugby – it’s the 10th World Cup and every 12 years we are in the final. " 

This Tournament could not only be a milestone and historical for France if they win, it is significant for the Rugby World Cup's History, as Macron pointed out. The pain of being so close to holding the Web Ellis Cup, but too far away must weigh on les Bleus in every World Cup. If the Final is between les Bleus and the All Blacks, no doubt the fire underneath France will be just about bearable for them to still play, but not burn them to ashes. 

In short, "The All Blacks have played France seven times at RWCs, the most of any country": it is entirely possible the traditional rivals know each other better than any other Team. Dusautoir even said in the 2011 final, their strategy was defensive because it was the best option. In addition, les Bleus are the next team I back after New Zealand, I have a special place in my heart for them.

South Africa is third because the All Blacks can defeat them and France, but France has just that little bit more heart this time around playing on their own turf. The Springboks's current squad is older than its competitors so if some of the current players defend their title in 2023, they'll be even older and whilst it is an -ism to talk about age, it still is an undeniable factor. 

Australia are another strong team, but they are no match for the All Blacks and the Springboks, their game is just not on the same level as their competitors. Although the Wallabies's current squad has a lot of members and is young, they won't be in the top 3 places.  

England is a write-off in most sports, they just don't have what it takes. New Zealand, France, South Africa or England? Despite the unpredictability of les Bleus, I would still favour them over South Africa. England's current squad is also a bit older than the other top National Teams, so if some of the players continue through to 2023, the lack of younger players may hurt them, but they manage to self-inflict harm in any case. Evidence of England's lack of ability? When was the last time England won the Football World Cup? An Englishman or Woman won Wimbledon? Not British, English. Cricket? England may have pioneered or contributed hugely to a sport, but they don't win tournaments when the finals rolls around. They'll not place, they'll be 4th or 5th.

However, I hesitate to categorically nominate who will be 4th and 5th between Australia and England. Australia do seem the more logical choice, and they are in the same league as England, as opposed to New Zealand, France and South Africa. I also do not have any particular affinity with Australia nor England to sway me.

You may ask why I included 4th and 5th places: New Zealand, France, South Africa, Australia and England are considered high-ranking teams according to statistics. History, ability, resources, culture, heart and determination among other factors, probably play a huge part to them being the top teams.

- A.M.

Sources:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/sport/437282/all-blacks-draw-les-bleus-in-world-cup-opener

https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/news/619814

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richie_McCaw

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Carter

https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/news/607290/rwc-2023-spotlight-france

https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/news/609689/rugby-world-cup-2023-draw-reaction

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thierry_Dusautoir#2011_Rugby_World_Cup

Arts during covid-19

There has always seemed to be a rivalry between hard subjects and soft subjects: Science and the Arts.

Also, the ever present debate centred on a zombie apocalypse: would the scientists survive, or the artistic people?

In a concrete World, the Arts represent music, film, literature, traditional Arts (painting, sculpture, etc.). They are and always have been underappreciated and don't always get the recognition they deserve. This is because they are not always staring you in the face like a computer, public transport, buildings, electricity, internet.

However, people have been watching online a lot more during the covid-19 pandemic, they've been listening to music more, they've been reading a lot more, and by reading, I am specifically talking about fiction. I imagine there are a lot of relieved and happy people who are thankful J.R.R Tolkien and JK Rowling exist; Adele, Madonna, Ed Sheeran, The Weeknd, Sia, Armin van Buuren, Jonas Blue, Martin Garrix. And regardless of how you feel or what your opinion is on streaming services like Netflix, there is absolutely no doubt some of you are glad for it and its competitors: the digital storage not to mention diverse and vast availability of film, series, stand-up comedy has helped you through your recent daily life.

One might argue the quality of the Arts available, but it is still Art and lots of it. If you don't like Katy Perry or Taylor Swift, you can listen to P!nk or Demi Lovato. If you don't like listening to Kendrick Lamar or Eminem, there is Tiësto or Calvin Harris, The Rolling Stones, Iggy Pop or The White Stripes. The same can be said of films, TV series and comedy on streaming services, there is so much variety and different levels of engagement that you can keep yourself 'occupied'.

If you are not passive, then you can be active: for the real organic people, you can create your own music, write your own book, paint your own painting, sculpt your own sculpture; take your own photos, colour in your colouring book, choreograph your own routine in dance.

I hope the people who never really appreciated the Arts now have a better understanding of how important they are and a better regard for them. It may not keep your food cool, it may not allow you to talk to your family, it may not keep you warm or cool from the weather, but try to imagine never listening to music in your life, never watching a film, never reading fiction.

For those who have always had the Arts in their life, they may say you can't miss what you don't have. True. But you do have it. So I am using that as a starting point.

And also a continuing point. Many, many millions of people do not have enough money to access music and films. To take it even further, many millions of people do not have electricity and hot water or even a house. They may not even be able to eat everyday and have limited drinking water. These people are amongst the hardest hit by the pandemic; and mostly likely in even worse circumstances now. So not only are those who have enough money and are able to access the Arts lucky, but we should not underappreciate the Arts.

There are many pros to the pandemic, such as lower levels of environmental pollution; the increased abstract appreciation of being with your loved ones in person; spending more time with loved ones for those living together; starting, continuing or finishing personal projects, but the Arts probably impacts you more on a daily basis, because when you are confined to the same four walls for a longer amount of time than you're used to, one thing you can do is listen to music, watch a film, read a book, colour in your colouring book.

Science caused covid-19 and science is being used to fight covid-19. While we should listen to the experts telling us what to do and hope they will be the ones who enable us to live our lives like they were pre the pandemic, we are interacting with the Arts to get us through.

- A.M.

Christchurch, 10 years on

I was there. On Tuesday 22 February 2011 at 12.51 pm. 6.3 magnitude earthquake. 5 Km in depth.

I was also there on Saturday 4 September 2010 for the 7.1 magnitude earthquake. 11 Km in depth.

In fact, the only time I wasn't in Christchurch from 2010 until 2015 was for around two months during the then upcoming Summer where I was on holiday overseas.

I haven't watched the Memorial, I don't think I can without crying. Maybe later today.

I was in a bar on the first floor for an administrative issue when the earthquake hit. It was nothing like the 2010 one. Even if you'd never experienced an earthquake until then like me, you would've known it was one, like I did. I didn't move, I just grabbed the bar and the two other people, who were there for the same reason as me, crouched down near the doorway, the man shielding the woman. We left the building as soon as we could and stood outside where a lot of other people were.

I texted someone "I'm fine". Afterwards, they said they didn't understand the text but then they felt the aftershocks up North and knew what I meant.

Luckily, I wasn't in the CBD, nor in New Brighton. I was in Riccarton and I lived in Upper Riccarton. I wasn't one of the 185 people who would die. We were told we could stay and wait for advice or go home. Even then I knew it was stupid, but since we were told we could be looked after, I stayed. The fact I didn't have to look after myself and someone else would was what I wanted. I wasn't even far from home by foot.

I don't even remember what time I got home. We were lucky. We never lost electricity, internet, water. I think we just sat around and had the telly on. I remember we went out to pick up fish and chips for dinner. Surprisingly, but also not surprisingly, they were open. The people who ran the place had that work ethic and business mind - the shop was packed. Aside from living in the aftermath of an earthquake, if we had wanted to go shopping, I think the supermarkets were closed.

At some point the news informed us about the earthquake and tsunami in Japan and that was too much. It was overwhelming. Almost unbelievable, really hard to process. We sympathized completely, but we couldn't watch it.

One of the hardest and saddest things was Japan had sent people over to New Zealand to help USAR (Urban Search and Rescue, lead by the incredible Jim Stuart-Black) and then they had to return home to deal with their disaster and so did some of the Kiwis helping with the earthquake at home. Jim Stuart-Black wasn't at the Memorial in 2011 because he was in Japan. I think he was supposed to collect an award of some sort. He was awesome, he seemed to be very level-headed and when he did interviews, his demeanour wasn't stressed or angry, he answered to the best of his ability and knowledge. Note he made time for the interviews. I remember hearing the Japanese helping USAR were so shocked by what they saw in Christchurch, which was and still is saying something.

The funny thing was and is, there was no news for us in Christchurch. Nothing to update us on or that was relevant. Once they had told us its magnitude and its depth and to stay safe and other practicalities, that was pretty much the news. I think people not in Christchurch knew more than us, because everyone (in Chch) was trying to get their head around the situation that had just happened.

No one expected an earthquake to hit Christchurch the way it did. I was so angry when they found the fault line had been there thousands of years. How did they not know about it?

I had just had two months holiday and was told I had one extra month - aside from being irritated because I was ready to go back, it spoke to the severity of the earthquake in contrast to the 2010 one, where we had two weeks off because of the circumstances.

I decided to stay in New Zealand and not leave, because I had no reason not to: I had a connection and leaving would've been worse in terms of my future than staying. So I stayed.

I attended the Memorial in Hagley Park. Lots of people turned up and I remember Prince William speaking. It was a sunny day and I think lots of people were wearing red and black. It was emotional.

The earthquake in June was a mental shock because we all thought the earthquakes were over. My personal account of that earthquake is a story in itself. I was at the airport that time.

That was also the year of the Rugby World Cup and by God, Christchurch and New Zealand needed the All Blacks to win. I remember the day after seeing 'Fuck Yes!' spray-painted on a wooden fence, which wasn't entirely intact. Lots of the All Blacks playing then came from Christchurch or had links to it.

I signed a pledge in 2011 to not leave Christchurch and I did leave in 2015, but not because of the earthquakes. It was for professional and immigration reasons and I also had no connections like a family or a house or an insurance claim so in that sense I was free and unattached.

For a while after the earthquakes, especially when I was in Wellington and I got asked where I was from, there was that look. Impressed. Many must have thought, "I'm a Wellingtonian, but you're from Christchurch".

I think the people who have it hardest are the general population in Christchurch, especially the ones who are attached by family, owning a house and/or consider Christchurch their home they'll never leave because they've lived there so long. The council, the government, the insurance companies, all the authorities and officials are the ones making it harder and slowing down the reconstruction. Politics and economy. I loved Christchurch and have a certain connection with it, and I still do, but I have no reason to go back there, especially when there are still buildings whose current state are visibly a direct consequence of the earthquake.

Jacinda Ardern seems to be a good leader. Maybe she can make Christchurch's reconstruction progress.

- A.M.

Happy Valentine's Day New Zealand

3 community covid-19 cases. I knew it would happen, that is to say there would be more covid in New Zealand. It was just a matter of time. It's not just the fact I lived there a few weeks shy of 10 years, it's also the fact they need better border restrictions. New Zealand has been praised for its response, but the UK and South Africa are not banned and they should be because of the variants. Lots of other places have banned them, but not NZ.

Jacinda Ardern herself said one reason she decided to lockdown NZ was out of fear. But now they have 3 cases and the psychological impact. I am sure having stricter border restrictions will help keep covid out. New Zealand is an island far away from a lot of countries: a disadvantage and an advantage. Swine flu and bird flu never got to New Zealand because it was too far, but it lacks experience with health problems as a result. And being an island also is irrelevant: look at Australia, the UK, Indonesia, the Philippines, they all have covid. There are very few countries that do not have it. It has reached all continents.

Note no place that has had covid is free of it. Until recently New Zealand has always had covid. It has not had community cases, but it has had covid. The difference is important. Two, regardless of how competent authorities are or not, no place that has had covid has been officially declared covid-19 free by WHO (let's accept it's probably them that are going to formally declare this). Hong Kong was declared free of SARS by WHO; wild poliovirus type 2 was eradicated in 1999 and no case of wild poliovirus type 3 has been found since the last reported case in Nigeria in November 2012: both strains have officially been certified as globally eradicated; the UK was declared free of measles and actually lost that status.

When Australia declared its first case ever of covid-19, I was surprised New Zealand didn't get it within the next week. Australia is like a 'travel tunnel' to New Zealand. I wasn't surprised Air NZ was basically wiped out a month later, it's definitely not Qatar or Emirates or Cathay Pacific or Singapore Airlines, but what surprised me a bit was the speed it plunged into financial difficulties.

I have enough experience of the New Zealand psyche too. What I believe are the more loose border restrictions compared to other countries stem from it: "we'll be alright". No you won't. Only let permanent residents and citizens in. Or maybe not even them.

Not only are Kiwis not familiar with mask wearing and carrying hand sanitizer and wet wipes, but there's that mentality of "we're too far away for it to affect us", "chill out and relax", which is applied to many things.

They also don't realize in general how good they have it. I don't think they take it for granted, they do appreciate their country, they just don't fully realize it, especially the ones who don't really travel outside of it or forget after travelling. The ones who travel enough internationally or have emigrated do, but the born-and-bred Kiwis don't.

Yes, I give credit to New Zealand for their response, but you need to look beyond the numbers. The fierce lockdown was in part based on lack of resources, fear and also a female perspective. However, as the majority of leaders are men, a fair conclusion can't be confirmed.

You might think I am being overly critical of NZ, but this is my truth. Maybe it comes from the fact they have been praised a lot; but there are loopholes, don't blindly clap your hands. And possibly because I love it so much I don't want it to be affected too much by covid-19.

- A.M.

Sources:

♩ Swine flu did in fact reach New Zealand: https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/eyewitness/audio/2018738853/swine-flu-2009-2010

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300185880/flattening-curve-was-not-enough-jacinda-ardern-talks-about-new-zealands-covid-response-us-elections-in-ap-interview

https://www.who.int/csr/don/2003_06_23/en/

https://www.who.int/health-topics/poliomyelitis#tab=tab_1

https://www.euro.who.int/en/media-centre/sections/press-releases/2019/european-region-loses-ground-in-effort-to-eliminate-measles

https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-countries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/?sh=224364b3dec4

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/18/female-led-countries-handled-coronavirus-better-study-jacinda-ardern-angela-merkel

https://ideas.ted.com/6-things-we-can-learn-from-how-women-leaders-have-handled-the-pandemic/

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/16/female-leaders-make-a-real-difference-covid-may-be-the-proof