I have a contact who believes his own country will not win the Cup, and that team is in the top 4. When I asked him he said the All Blacks and mentioned they were "unbeatable". As you all know, I love the All Blacks and was gunning for them to win, but now it's la France.
I was researching and looking up, when I came across the below and messaged my contact: I think you're right, I'm so proud of the All Blacks, but France can win.
He said then the All Blacks wouldn't win the Cup, it woud be Ireland, South Africa or France. I said I didn't want to know the result of Twickenham yet because I was typing up 'The upcoming Rugby World Cup France 2023: who I think will win', but those results show Australia seems strong, the scores/that score against the All Blacks are/is close.
Then I basically found out the 25th August Twickenham score through my contact before publishing and it was hard to process because it was f...ing crazy.
I did not watch the match, but I will voice my opinion, then read about the match.
To me, it might be a one off. South Africa could be fuelled by fear so that's why they won. And it's a warm-up, not the actual tournament. If it's not a fluke, then they better not have peaked already/too soon. It harks back to the Cup in 2019, the English believing they had a chance, thrashing the All Blacks, then losing the next match, wasting everyone's time.
The All Blacks first warm-up match not in New Zealand ended at 35-7 to South Africa. Not being at home can be harder than being there, but it can be motivation too. It will hurt and they'll feel bad, having flown thousands of kilometres and it's time, effort, money, their loved ones' support, representing their country etc. Retallick will be playing when he's recovered from injury and it sounds like he's good. I'm not sure when the All Blacks left for Twickenham, but acclimatisation may be a factor. I don't know if arrogance could be a factor, but I think it's unlikely. They have time to learn and place 2nd.
France is still my favourite to win and to take the spotlight away from New Zealand for a little bit, les Bleus and South Africa have been playing well in their warm-up matches.
However, while the All Blacks may have been defeated and up until 25th August 2023 they had a perfect record, in 2011 they only won by one point against France. So they can turn things around, or rather, like in that match, get ahead and hold it to take 2nd place.
Also, now they might have a fire lit under their asses or more of one. Better now, before the tournament. And remember, 2011 and 2015, 2019 where it was stolen from them and they came in third. They might feel that still, a lot even, and it will fuel them. Winning can be ecstatic, but you may not necessarily learn as much. Losing can also ground you, which although they are grounded and down-to-earth, they had a perfect record so it may have dented them mentally a bit. And that's good.
Of course, none of what I said matters, the essence of a competition is that day, that time, those players, the strategy for that particular match.
All Blacks, you're still the best team in the World in my eyes and I love you.
After reading about the Twickenham match, it seems South Africa played great and the All Blacks didn't. I like to think it was a really bad day at work, and maybe/possibly a touch of arrogance. One thing I will say, Ian Foster and the All Blacks are such good sportsmen, they praised South Africa and were honest with themselves.
"Twickenham was an unusual ground to host the two southern hemisphere sides, with their last meeting at the venue coming in a 2015 World Cup semi-final, which the All Blacks won 20-18 thanks to a late Beauden Barrett try. "
It was the All Blacks worst loss in their history, 131 years.
"The All Blacks' previous record loss was by 21 points in 1999 and 2019."
"The end margin would still eclipse New Zealand’s previous heaviest defeats, 21-pointers to Australia in 1999 in Sydney and 2019 in Perth."
"New Zealand's previous record loss was 28-7 to Australia in 1999": it just hit me how many fans were there, or had left before the end of the match, and their reaction at full time must have impacted the All Blacks hard. Humiliation, maybe, among other emotions.
"The game extended beyond two hours with stoppages for video consultations and injuries. But if it was an example of what teams can expect at the World Cup, then New Zealand has been put on notice."
It seems the All Blacks have a team ethos which in this case was a weakness because when they didn't have 15 players, it affected them because they weren't a team. This really sank in when I was reading about Sam Cane in the Rugby Pass article. The All Blacks also became undisciplined, the root cause possibly being desperation, and Ian Foster and Sam Cane said they'd rather learn now than later, which was what I said above. When one lets fear/desperation get to them, one can stop being sensible/level-headed/reasonable etc.
The Barrett brothers I found out are solid, but Scott was twice branded "stupid", "New Zealand have already lost experienced lock Brodie Retallick for the opening game of the World Cup against France on 8 September with an injury, as Barrett becomes the first All Black to be sent off twice", and reading "Matthew Carley tired of their persistent infringing by sin-binning Scott Barrett then captain Sam Cane, the first yellow or red cards conceded by the All Blacks all year" conveys the All Blacks' desperation.
To clarify, Scott Barrett might not play not only the next match, but the latter is the opening match of the Cup at le Stade de France against France. Richie Mo’unga's performance was noted in particular.
Jamie Wall for RNZ expressed shades of negativity, anger, irritation, but not frustration it seems. He summarizes the game well: "But everything, from the faltering scrum to the ineffective counter attack to the absolutely shocking discipline, was a reason for the loss. This all needs to be fixed, and in a way that's different to before because if the Springboks can figure out how to subject the All Blacks to that sort of treatment, the French certainly will be able to as well. If they are going to play that poorly, Italy probably can too."
"Foster tried to be positive. “Maybe this (result) will take a lot of heat off us. No one will rate us now.”
Interesting. Maybe "No one will rate us now” means the All Blacks can surprise and they'll be no expectations on them. And for their part, they can 'relax', some pressure has gone.
"South Africa’s triumph was their most convincing in the 102-year history of this fixture and a depleted All Black pack were left in pieces on the floor."
"The world champions made it back-to-back wins after their 52-16 demolition of Wales in Cardiff last weekend, as Jacques Nienaber's side appear to be hitting their best form before their World Cup opener against Scotland on 10 September." South Africa better not peak or have peaked too soon.
"South Africa finished second in this year's Rugby Championship behind New Zealand."
"In their Rugby Championship fixture earlier this year, the All Blacks dominated the opening quarter and went 17-0 ahead."
"South Africa’s previous biggest win over New Zealand was 17-0 in 1928."
"South Africa was euphoric, six weeks after it was mauled by New Zealand in the Rugby Championship."
South Africa's great performance seemed to be driven by hunger, which is 'dangerous' to me because it can be temporary, once you're full, you don't need to eat. They might get full before the final, and it wouldn't be a surprise if winning is their aim. Yes, hunger can be advantageous, but they can't purely win on just hunger. What if they become overconfident or even arrogant or possibly worse, complacent? Fear can be better, you can fear losing the closer you get to the Cup. Each match you could lose. I don't think South Africa expressed fear, or if they did, it was not shown outwardly.
I noted 'dethrone', I think because the word doesn't sit well with me. Maybe because I love the All Blacks, even if I want them to be 2nd and I believe France will lift the Webb Ellis Cup. Maybe because I don't think South Africa deserved their 2019 win. To build on that, if they win this year, then they will be the second team with two consecutive wins, after the All Blacks. That doesn't make me happy, but then they can't win a third time. Preferably prevented by the All Blacks.
The only disadvantage and/or maybe tip for opponents and/or strategy to consider for the South Africa coach and team is their forwards had a lot of work to do. If they can handle it, especially without injury, for 7 weeks and 1 day, good.
This quote seems apt for the match they dominated: "The Springboks received a huge confidence boost going into their World Cup defense starting against Scotland on Sept. 10 in Marseille. They and the All Blacks could potentially meet again in the World Cup quarterfinals, and if they do South Africa has the momentum after laying a massive marker."
-A.M.
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