France have never won the Cup. I was shocked to find this out.
After doing some research, but mostly after the All Blacks World Cup squad was announced, I did a 360 and now France will win. I don't usually do u-turns, it's uncharacteristic.
If France doesn't win, it has to be the All Blacks.
Les Bleus have more reason than the All Blacks.
- They've never won the Cup
- They're more acclimatised to France's weather than the Kiwis, or any other players from any other country for that matter
- They're the f... ing host country
- The opening and closing matches are at the Stade de France. The Stade de France, people.
- The opening match is France vs New Zealand.
- The have history with the All Blacks
- 2011, France lost by one point (the fear in Richie McCaw's eyes was palpable)
- As a team, they're speedy, but most of all, unpredictable and good under pressure. C'est très français. To draw a parallel, remember the last Football World Cup when they made their comeback? I rest my case.
- The All Blacks are away from home, France is not
A win from the French is long overdue.
Finals
1987 New Zealand against France in Eden, 29-9
1995 South Africa against New Zealand in Johannesburg, 15-12
1999 Australia against France Cardiff, Wales
2007 South Africa against England, Stade de France
2011 New Zealand against France Eden Park, 8-7
2015 New Zealand against Australia, Twickenham
2019 South Africa against England Nissan Stadium, Japan
In finals, New Zealand have been at 4, South Africa and France are tied at 3. New Zealand have more experience against France and the current champions South Africa have none. New Zealand have experience against France and South Africa in finals, but South Africa are 'newbies' with their 2019 win, the French are not, but it's been since 23rd October 2011. 20th October 2007 for South Africa is even longer, if you do not include 2019. If the All Blacks and les Bleus are in the final, it will be the third time together if they make it.
Wins
New Zealand: 3 in 1987, 2011, 2015
South Africa: 3, one stolen, in 1995, 2007, 2019
France: 0
New Zealand/Aotearoa has three wins under their belt, South Africa have three, but they stole the 2019 one from the All Blacks so it doesn't count to me. And 2007 is not as recent as 2011 and 2015. Consecutive wins, people, a record, no one had done it before.
Second place/runner up
New Zealand: 1 in 1995
South Africa: 0
France: 3 in 1987, 1999, 2011
New Zealand have been second place once, France has three times which shows they keep trying, they don't give up. They know the pain of the Cup being in reach, they could've won, they just didn't have that extra oomph. South Africa have never been in second, they are all or nothing. It's not they could see the Cup, it wasn't there, they didn't have 'it'.
Bronze
1991 New Zealand 13-6 Scotland
1995 France 19-9 England
1999 South Africa 22-18 New Zealand
2003 New Zealand 40-13 France were 'slaughtered'
2007 Argentina 34-10, France lost badly
2015 South Africa 24-13 Argentina, South Africa were strong
2019 New Zealand 40-17 Wales, New Zealand were/remained strong (England 19-7 New Zealand doesn't count, it was a bad day)
New Zealand: 4 in 1991, 1999, 2003, 2019
South Africa: 2 in 1999, 2015
France: 3 in 1995, 2003, 2007
New Zealand have not only more experience overall for bronze, but has been against South Africa and then France. Maybe they're fighters like the French are to fight for second place. France has one more bronze than South Africa, but is unpredictable whereas South Africa's end score holds steady in their wins and New Zealand always won, but the score margin is larger because they were too strong for their opponents, except maybe the French had a really bad 'off' day.
The first match of the Rugby World Cup 2023 is on Friday 8th September, France vs New Zealand. Originally I didn't know but thought it would be nice if France could win, but as I said in 'The upcoming Rugby World Cup France 2023' https://welcometohighonlifeandtravel.blogspot.com/2023/08/the-upcoming-rugby-world-cup-france-2023.html, New Zealand can win the opening match and France can win the final at the Stade de France to be Champions.
In bold, who I think will win, even if it doesn't mean France will be in the final according to my 'logic' (shows how much I know right). These are the scheduled matches as at https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/matches, which are known.
Saturday 9 September
Ireland vs Romania
Australia vs Georgia
England vs Argentina
Sunday 10 September
South Africa vs Scotland
Thursday 14 September
France vs Uruguay
Friday 15 September
New Zealand vs Namibia
Sunday 17 September
South Africa vs Romania
Australia vs Fiji
England vs Japan
Thursday 21 September
France vs Namibia
Saturday 23 September
England vs Chile
South Africa vs Ireland
Sunday 24 September
Wales vs Australia
Friday 29 September
New Zealand vs Italy
Sunday 1 October
Australia vs Portugal
South Africa vs Tonga
Thursday 5 October
New Zealand vs Uruguay
Friday 6 October
France vs Italy
Saturday 7 October
Wales vs Georgia
England vs Sāmoa
Ireland vs Scotland
Sunday 8 October
Japan vs Argentina
Tonga vs Romania
Saturday 7 October
Fiji vs Portugal
I coincidentally caught the All Blacks World Cup squad announcement live and one thing that stood out for me is it was done in Hawke's Bay, which was hit hard by Cyclone Gabrielle. The All Blacks, you guys have your feet on the ground.
As I watched until the squad photo, I couldn't help but wonder where Nonu was. He still has what it takes in my opinion. If he was picked and the All Blacks won, it would be his third win and maybe he'd even set a record due to his age.
It was hard not to believe the All Blacks won't win when I was watching.* Well done Barrett brothers, you're solid. Savea and Whitelock I only know by name really.
The Kiwis have been at Twickenham for the 2015 final against Australia and maybe have beaten South Africa there (correct me if I am wrong): this is because of their warm-up match against the Springboks soon.
After my research, it really hit me how historic NZ against France is, especially for the opening match at none other than the Stade de France. In terms of statistics and experience in World Cup finals and the other reasons, or maybe, motivations, it seems the stars are aligned for France to win.
The All Blacks might set a record if they win, but it won't be a hat-trick, what should've been their third consecutive win was stolen from them. By the fucking English (and South Africa) who woke up, realized they had a chace at winning the Cup, then lost the match after the All Blacks.
Although the All Blacks are the best team in the World for me, the French character is what makes them good, unpredictable and great under pressure. But then again, it's a weakness, France just lost, they came back too late in 2011.
Another advantage could be the haka, which is basically a Māori challenge. The only team to have a war dance in addition to their national anthem. They better perform it well at all the Cup matches and especially against New Zealand.
Of course, statistics, history, players, experience etc do not necessarily mean anything.
This is my final verdict: go the All Blacks for second place, I love you, but les Bleus have it in the bag and will lift la Coupe on Saturday 28th October 2023.
* Yes, I got the tense right
Sources:
-A.M.
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