The gauntlet has been thrown down!
The first match is France vs New Zealand at no other than the Stade de France. On Friday the 8th of September 2023. Not just historical, with a shit tonne of rivalry, but it will be an epic, epic start to the RWC. With a capacity of 80 000 spectators, the Stade de France is steeped in musical history, sporting history, and tragedy. I have never been inside it, but I imagine it is like the old Wembley. Just watch Nicola Sirkis's reaction to the crowd. Note Indochine are a seasoned band: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKn7PH-bFQ4
The All Blacks are going to win the whole tournament. They are the best team in the World. I was lucky enough to be in New Zealand when they won in 2011 and 2015. I was so sure they were going to win in 2019, but that doesn't stop them being the best team in the World. There is a saying that when you go up, you must come down. I respond: "You go up and you stay up. You don't go down." In this case at least. Tokyo was a fluke and I'm not just saying that because I back the All Blacks whole-heartedly. I never used to be interested in rugby, but when you live in New Zealand, you can't really not know about them, even if it's only Richie McCaw and Dan Carter you've heard of.
Tokyo was a fluke because of the storm Hagibis, and the unexpected waking up of England who suddenly realized they might have a better chance than they anticipated. Then England lost the next match, which quite frankly was a waste of everyone's time and effort. The All Blacks, on the other hand, always perform well, they are a solid team, and if you do need more evidence of this, look at them post Richie McCaw and Dan Carter. After they retired, I was most interested in seeing if the All Blacks were Richie McCaw and Dan Carter. They are not. the All Blacks are a team, they did not fall apart when Richie McCaw and Dan Carter were no longer part of them. Also note Richie McCaw was injured during a good part of the RWC 2011 and Dan Carter was too, for some time.
The final is also at the Stade de France on Saturday the 28th October 2023. The All Blacks will be there. The below placing is what I believe will be reality.
Champions: The All Blacks, New Zealand
Runner-up: Les Bleus, la France
3rd Place: The Springboks, South Africa
4th Place: The Wallabies, Australia
5th Place: England
What is my reasoning?
The All Blacks are the best team in the World. Rugby is in their blood, it's in their genetics. The current squad being a bit older then the other National Teams is irrelevant and if some of the ones in the current squad are in the 2023 one, they've been through at least one World Cup. The All Blacks have made history at least a few times throughout the whole World Cup timeline. And some of their players have too, Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Ma'a Nonu, the Barrett Brothers, as examples.
France are unpredictable, but their current squad are younger than the other Teams they'll go up against, and will still be fairly young if they play in two years' time. They also have heart and are on their home turf, which ups the stakes emotionally. They are thirsty for that Cup.
"France 2023 [is] set to celebrate 200 years of rugby."
"France have yet to lift the Webb Ellis Cup despite playing in every tournament and reaching three finals. Other than their failure to win a Rugby World Cup, they have the best record of any European team – registering as many wins as 2003 champions England but with more points scored.
Having come so close to glory in 1987, 1999 and 2011, les Bleus will be looking to put the record straight and go all the way when they host the tournament for a second time in 2023."
“Every 12 years we are in the final of the World Cup. I did the calculations and it means that in 2023, that will be 12 years after our last final so, believe me, it’s 2023 and we need to bring the Cup home,” Macron said.
“We’ll all be right behind you. We are celebrating an important anniversary in rugby – it’s the 10th World Cup and every 12 years we are in the final. "
This Tournament could not only be a milestone and historical for France if they win, it is significant for the Rugby World Cup's History, as Macron pointed out. The pain of being so close to holding the Web Ellis Cup, but too far away must weigh on les Bleus in every World Cup. If the Final is between les Bleus and the All Blacks, no doubt the fire underneath France will be just about bearable for them to still play, but not burn them to ashes.
In short, "The All Blacks have played France seven times at RWCs, the most of any country": it is entirely possible the traditional rivals know each other better than any other Team. Dusautoir even said in the 2011 final, their strategy was defensive because it was the best option. In addition, les Bleus are the next team I back after New Zealand, I have a special place in my heart for them.
South Africa is third because the All Blacks can defeat them and France, but France has just that little bit more heart this time around playing on their own turf. The Springboks's current squad is older than its competitors so if some of the current players defend their title in 2023, they'll be even older and whilst it is an -ism to talk about age, it still is an undeniable factor.
Australia are another strong team, but they are no match for the All Blacks and the Springboks, their game is just not on the same level as their competitors. Although the Wallabies's current squad has a lot of members and is young, they won't be in the top 3 places.
England is a write-off in most sports, they just don't have what it takes. New Zealand, France, South Africa or England? Despite the unpredictability of les Bleus, I would still favour them over South Africa. England's current squad is also a bit older than the other top National Teams, so if some of the players continue through to 2023, the lack of younger players may hurt them, but they manage to self-inflict harm in any case. Evidence of England's lack of ability? When was the last time England won the Football World Cup? An Englishman or Woman won Wimbledon? Not British, English. Cricket? England may have pioneered or contributed hugely to a sport, but they don't win tournaments when the finals rolls around. They'll not place, they'll be 4th or 5th.
However, I hesitate to categorically nominate who will be 4th and 5th between Australia and England. Australia do seem the more logical choice, and they are in the same league as England, as opposed to New Zealand, France and South Africa. I also do not have any particular affinity with Australia nor England to sway me.
You may ask why I included 4th and 5th places: New Zealand, France, South Africa, Australia and England are considered high-ranking teams according to statistics. History, ability, resources, culture, heart and determination among other factors, probably play a huge part to them being the top teams.
- A.M.
Sources:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/sport/437282/all-blacks-draw-les-bleus-in-world-cup-opener
https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/news/619814
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richie_McCaw
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Carter
https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/news/607290/rwc-2023-spotlight-france
https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/news/609689/rugby-world-cup-2023-draw-reaction
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thierry_Dusautoir#2011_Rugby_World_Cup
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